|Irakli Toronjadze, international relations scientist was answering questions of the news agency GHN.
- The word's political sphere faces now quite an extraordinary situation: the regional events; elections race in USA; terroristic attacks in Europe; strained situation in the near East. And again the hot spot - the Afghanistan. Also conflict with Syria... Some experts are viewing this in a one context, as the process of the big redistribution of power, that is pending now in the worlds politics. How do you think what happens now in reality, how would be possible to open the deadlocked situation?
-The modern world is in a process of dynamic changes. The revolutionary development of the contemporary technologies made radical changes in a world economy, in finance and trade areas. The changes are also in political and social life. The unprecedented facilitation of the communications and the global finance-economic integration is followed by noticeable activation of regional processes.
In aspiration for the economic stability, the countries are deepening the level of integration in different areas of social life at the regional level; for increasing of the competitive abilities of the market and for growing. At the same time each of them are aspiring to be first, trying to became a center for the integration. All this happens in the circumstances when the USA as a world leader has the foreign political vector directed to the Asia-Pacific. And Europe, for a range of problems, was refraining from activity outside its borders. To be noted that the violations of the International Law are occurring often. From the point of view of the international politics, the process of seeking new position for balance is evident.
In this context the above mentioned competition might be seen as a process of ‘redistribution'. From the other point of view we can consider it is correct to view the current processes in a paradigm of a ‘clash of civilizations'.
I would tell the roots of the problem far deeper are. In 80' of the 20-th century, Fukuyama was predicting an end of the world's history. And in this view we are now witnesses of the new history's birth. The époque of the industrial progress; as well as the agrarian one long time ago; is a matter of the past. The new era is coming now, the informational one. As a rule the birth of new époque is too painful, and touches all spheres of the human living. I would note especially the radical changes in economics.
In the informational era the center of the well being in a material area is shifted to the information and to the producing-realization of the knowledge. As a result, new elites are emerging, and an old ones are receding. Clear notions of the radical transformation in energy sphere are shaping. This will make a push for the changing processes in a qualitative and quantity angle.
I am about to say that, the ‘redistribution' is not simply foreign political event, or being presupposed by the subjects; but is a projection of the global processes that is already encompassing almost totally all - individual and social life of human.
Deriving from this, we should expect the escape a deadlocked situation after the finalization of the current process, when the new world order will be finally shaped. The task for today would be the care about preserving and improving of the mankind's achievements. In the area of interstate relations, this will be first of all, the international law and international organizations, as a field of the cooperation between countries.
- The ISIS is a danger that is hard to cope with. What is the reason for this? The West is not able to make decisive steps, and many political analysts are telling behind this organization somehow (in sharing its interests) Russia is?
- The radical Islam entered the arena of terrorist attacks on September 11. Despite of the shock, many believed that this was an inadequate reaction but still directed to the self-defense. That the villains were defending own "borders" (by the way such opinion one can hear today too). Seems like such approach was presupposed by the fact that the Islamic terroristic nature was not studied deeply enough. As a result, the West appeared to be unprepared for the new wave of the terroristic attacks. The West lacks a consolidated strategy in a fight with the terrorism. Today the situation is evident, terrorists activated, they are invading our homes, and they are trying to destroy what we were constructing for the centuries. They are making questionable now our values and trying to destroy our living style. If we study the ideology of Islamic states in a view of the current development in the world, will be clear that the fight of Islamic states are directed to changes happening in the modern world. The Daishi followers are realizing that in the circumstances of the fail of the demand for the carbohydrates, for the fundamental reasons of the internal (but not the outer nature) they will appear at the periphery of the future world's paradigm. This reason is why the Kremlin and Daishi are allays in its nature.
This was clearly shown at the Syria crisis. However we cannot talk still about the direct connections, for the absence of factual happenings. No doubt we have not exclude the geopolitical factor. The consolidation of the Islamic states happens at the distant territory from the centers of the world powers, when the regions are not in a priority interests. The possibilities of the regional forces were not enough for avoiding the escalation of a conflict. This gives to Russia a possibility to strengthen its military presence and to influence the processes. However, it is clear that Moscow's efforts are directed to the deepening of the conflict but not to its resolution. For reaching the agreement on a freezing of the conflict with the West. This gives to Russia the advantage to keep the region's conflict and all world under the threat of a negative developments and future escalation. And the efforts of the West are directed for avoidance of such situation. But some observers consider this as a fear of Russia. Russia tries to push the world to the logics of cold war period, when the conflict between two confronting sides within the block was to be resolved without interference of the third power.
The concept of the Russian Federation's foreign policy sees the future world as a multipolarized system. This seems like an anachronistic idea, but Russia tries first of all to establish own exclusive interests zone. In other words, the integration of such a region, where the rules of a game will be dictated by Russia only. Accordingly, in strategic view, the attempts of the Russian Federation to drug the world to the cold war logics, responded by the West, quite properly.
- As far as we are talking about Russia, the ‘analysis' of the Russian Defense Minister is interesting who tells that in Caucasus and Middle Asia the crisis may happen like in Syria. How far the interests of Russia are evident in such crisis. And what can stop the imperialistic ambitions of Moscow?
- It is impossible to stop the imperialistic ambitions of Moscow. However, the qualitative and quantities indicators of these ambitions might be changing with the times passing. At the sake of former Soviet Republics, Russia integrated the economic and political area for own interests. This is a strategic nature choice of the Moscow and will be stable for a long period. This is preconditioned by the deep crisis affected now by the Russian state and the Russian people are affected. Despite of the 25 years of independence, now again the problem of the national identity on agenda is in Russia. This makes the state to face a permanent disintegration. The Moscow was not able to establish more or less competitive ability system in the education and science. The reason - a corruption and nepotism- based governance system is. The heads of the government are recognizing the reforms are necessary, but as well know that if implementing changes, the government will lose a control over the situation. The desire of a Moscow for the negligence of these and other problems makes Kremlin to shift the main accents to the international policy. At the same time the Moscow has parity with the USA on a nuclear potential, and also quite a solid ordinary Armed Forces. The Moscow tries to use these advantages with maximal effectiveness. Namely in this context we have to consider a declaration of a Russian Defense Minister. No real basis for his ‘analysis' does exist. This only ordinary threat is of the rude interference. .And a target will be not only the mentioned regions.
- The crisis in Turkey in the center of the world media is. The NATO member state openly accuses main player of the Alliance, the USA in support of the terrorism. It is clear that the Washington will not extradite Gulen. At the same time the USA military base factually paralyzed at the Turkish territory. What is the solution for the resolving of this situation? And is it possible that the crisis will be deepened. And maybe we will see the Ankara and Moscow as partners for the future?
- The Turkey accomplishes its historical stage of isolation and now moved to the new one. This denotes as well more active foreign policy too. The Ankara has a positive integration program for the regions, in the frames of implementation of this program, very important Kurdish problem is decided too. And in the period of the fair development of a ruling political party, there were not cases when USA or any other Western allays were hindering to Turkey in implementing of own plans. Deriving from this, we have to suppose that the partnership of Turkey with NATO on a very solid strategic basis is grounded. Unlike with Russian Federation, where even a year did not passed since the Russian airplane, that violated the Turkish airspace was crushed by the Turkish side. Who watches the events critically can remember that Moscow was trying to hide this happening. This denotes that in relations between Moscow and Ankara the difficulties are that is hard to overcome. Also we can predict that such obstacles are affecting badly the strategic foreign policy plans of Turkey. So, the political alliance of Turkey and Russia, even in tactical view for overcoming of problems seems like very problematic, and less possible. Despite of the role of Gulen in this coup, the USA and Turkey will find the common ground for negotiations, and will stay as allays. We have to suppose that the improving of the situation will start after the new President will take a post.
- How can we overcome without cataclysms this hard period, and to pass this time without a loss?
- Despite the complex processes, I cannot see any cataclysm situation for Georgia. Our main danger still Russia is. But Russia for today has not necessary resources for the direct aggression against Georgia. We have to continue the direction for the neutralizing of Russia's aggression. This first of all denotes gaining of allies and deepening of cooperation.
- Cleary, we see that the authoritative international organizations are totally inactive. The UN cannot influence the world processes, as well the EU bodies are ineffective in this view, for instance for Ukraine's conflict. The economic embargo is not the real lever for the settling down the situation. Problems are also inside the NATO. How do you think, would it be necessary for democratic countries to establish more efficient organizations and to establish new rules in world politics? For instance, Russia's actions against Ukraine and Georgia are evidently showing that the declarations, agreements, charters which are signed by the member states is only a pose, and Russia always violates the international agreements.
- The economic sanctions against Russia were not initiated in itself for the instant result. What about its ineffectiveness, these only overvalued doubt is. The sanctions forced the Moscow to refuse its initial plan in Ukraine and to agree for negotiations. Namely, the fear of Russia of possible new sanctions, is a force that restricts the country form the large-scale military operations in Ukraine. What about the reformation of the international organizations, the talks about this started long time before. The new world order often was called as a Yalta political order, that was established by the countries that won in the WWII, taking in mind the lessons of past. This was established for excluding forever the revenge attempts of defeated ones. I am talking about the consequence of ‘improper' armistice concluded after the First World War, that was able to avoid the second one.
We have to recall that both World Wars were incited by the hegemonic desires not only Germany but Russia too. The aggressiveness of Germany was annihilated by its defeat. But the Russia's aggression was not destroyed. Russia appeared among the winners after the WWII, and continues to fight for domination in a world. This was called in the history as a cold war. The cold ended long before, and our generation was a witness of this. Unfortunately no armistice was concluded. This would give the coalition countries to cease forever the hegemonic desires of Russia
The UN reflects the realities of the past international system after the WWII. This anachronistic system is, as Russia has a right for veto. Unfortunately, we missed the right time for curbing Russia's hegemonic disposition.