Will reconcile Tsar Putin and Sultan Erdogan
 Tbilisi 15:24 - 15.08.16 «GHN»
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The meeting in Saint Petersburg of Russian and Turkish Presidents became a most important geopolitical event of the year. The Western media pays a big attention to this summit. The discussions followed this event. From the first glance a serious crisis that out broke for the Russia's violation of the Turkish airspace and subsequent killing of Russian pilot already overcame. As Erdogan apologized for the died Russian pilot before his family (but not before Putin or Russian state).

 At the same time Turkish language specialists specify that in a letter there was not a word "apologize". Instead he used a word "Do not judge me", and this is not the same. But what is a main this letter was accepted in Kremlin and recognized, as an apology. Moreover, Erdogan arrived for this to Saint Petersburg, but not Putin to Istanbul or Ankara! Moreover after the coup in Turkey Erdogan declared that the pilot who crushed the Russian bombardier, participated in a plot, e.g. he is a criminal, he is arrested and will be sentenced too. Was it truth or not, nobody knows but in Turkey thousands of militaries were arrested and not only for the facts alleged, but on a ground of a solid suspicion too.


What was a driving force for Edogan to make such step? First of all - the economics. But not only. What about the economy, - Russian indeed played a considerable role, for the past 30 years, in blossoming of the country. Russian tourists spent at the Mediterranean Sea resorts many milliard dollars, as well at the Istanbul grand markets. Turkish constructors are concluding a big projects agreements with Russians. All this fail in one day. The market closed, airspace too and number of Turkish stores near the Moscow in Podmoskovie disappeared too. The construction contracts were annulled without payments.


Erdogan is clever enough to understand that a coup was unsuccessful thanks to the fact that Turkish people are strongly linked him with a progress, welfare and speedy development. Without this his political legitimacy would be questionable.


And what the Russia is expecting to get in turn? First of the strategic project named as a "Turkish current". This will free Russia from its dependence on Ukraine's transit and gives the Moscow free hands to suffocate Ukraine.

Instead of the Turkish current, the Moscow promised to Ankara construction of the nuclear power station in Turkey, in turn for a credit, and this amount almost to the milliards of USD. Moreover Turkey is an important regional player, the vise and cautious gambling of Turkey was giving to Russia a way for realization of own interests in the different "chess fields" in a region. By the way a classical example is an Abkhazia, in 1994 Russia imposed sanctions against this region, because this was necessary for games with Shevardnadze. However, this politically-inspired blockade never was full. As far as, the decisions of Moscow were not affecting Turkey at all.

Turkey is an important factor for relations with NATO, as this state has a very strong Army (second in Europe after Germany) and first in its fighting abilities.

But here a question arises: does there exist the critical amount of the interests coincidence that will overweight the problems. And problems are more than enough. First of all Syria, where Russia and Turkey's interest are not coinciding and contrary are opposite.


 And Georgia? What will get Georgia out of the fight-and-reconciliation of these two unicorns? This outcome may be very hard for our country. The history repeats the geopolitical scenarios: in 1921 Moscow annexed Georgia after Lenin and Ataturk agreed for the friendship for forever. And the West does recognize that all Caucasus became strategic field for these two super states, and if they will reconcile finally, the Europe have nothing to do there. That's was a reason when English Army turned back from Georgia, for leaving the Black sea for forever.

Will be the history repeat itself or not this depends not only to the geopolitical factors, but as well to the professionalism of the Georgian elites.


Nika Imnaishvili

 



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